Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 113,047
2 South Dakota 99,499
3 Iowa 79,326
4 Wisconsin 77,661
5 Nebraska 74,486
6 Utah 69,416
7 Montana 65,674
8 Wyoming 65,459
9 Idaho 65,289
10 Minnesota 64,503
11 Rhode Island 64,471
12 Illinois 64,236
13 Kansas 62,953
14 Tennessee 60,482
15 Indiana 59,596
16 Arkansas 58,536
17 Nevada 57,358
18 Mississippi 57,346
19 Alabama 57,143
20 Missouri 56,871
21 Oklahoma 56,354
22 Louisiana 55,694
23 New Mexico 53,867
24 Arizona 52,789
25 Alaska 52,642
26 Florida 50,440
27 Texas 47,815
28 Kentucky 47,675
29 Colorado 47,641
30 Georgia 47,026
31 South Carolina 46,505
32 Michigan 44,840
33 Ohio 44,495
34 Delaware 43,535
35 New Jersey 43,159
36 Connecticut 39,421
37 North Carolina 39,296
38 Massachusetts 39,087
39 New York 37,985
40 Maryland 36,881
41 California 36,880
42 Pennsylvania 35,240
43 District of Columbia 33,799
44 West Virginia 32,621
45 Virginia 31,296
46 Puerto Rico 28,987
47 Washington 25,996
48 Oregon 20,937
49 New Hampshire 20,292
50 Hawaii 13,267
51 Maine 10,752
52 Vermont 8,469

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,938
2 North Dakota 1,383
3 Kansas 1,346
4 Ohio 1,285
5 Connecticut 1,199
6 Idaho 1,142
7 Tennessee 1,056
8 Arizona 914
9 Wyoming 903
10 Nevada 856
11 Delaware 849
12 Indiana 833
13 New Mexico 772
14 South Dakota 765
15 Minnesota 759
16 Alaska 757
17 Utah 742
18 Nebraska 732
19 Michigan 724
20 Montana 722
21 California 719
22 Pennsylvania 711
23 Alabama 700
24 New Hampshire 691
25 Colorado 688
26 Illinois 659
27 West Virginia 644
28 Mississippi 643
29 Wisconsin 636
30 Arkansas 632
31 Kentucky 613
32 Massachusetts 607
33 Missouri 603
34 Iowa 590
35 Louisiana 558
36 Oklahoma 548
37 Washington 545
38 North Carolina 544
39 Georgia 508
40 New Jersey 506
41 New York 485
42 Texas 485
43 South Carolina 475
44 Virginia 471
45 Maryland 420
46 Florida 392
47 District of Columbia 339
48 Oregon 301
49 Maine 274
50 Puerto Rico 239
51 Vermont 144
52 Hawaii 48

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,974
2 New York 1,788
3 Massachusetts 1,620
4 Connecticut 1,482
5 Louisiana 1,437
6 North Dakota 1,418
7 Rhode Island 1,400
8 Mississippi 1,357
9 South Dakota 1,296
10 Illinois 1,153
11 Michigan 1,071
12 District of Columbia 997
13 Arizona 972
14 Indiana 966
15 Pennsylvania 924
16 Arkansas 923
17 Florida 906
18 Georgia 906
19 South Carolina 895
20 New Mexico 869
21 Iowa 863
22 Delaware 824
23 Maryland 820
24 Texas 818
25 Alabama 812
26 Nevada 777
27 Missouri 756
28 Tennessee 748
29 Minnesota 739
30 Montana 721
31 Wisconsin 712
32 Nebraska 674
33 Kansas 666
34 Colorado 637
35 Idaho 628
36 Ohio 614
37 North Carolina 543
38 Kentucky 528
39 California 517
40 Wyoming 516
41 West Virginia 502
42 Virginia 501
43 Oklahoma 491
44 New Hampshire 419
45 Washington 413
46 Puerto Rico 381
47 Utah 310
48 Oregon 263
49 Alaska 195
50 Hawaii 186
51 Maine 183
52 Vermont 137

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 27
2 Wyoming 24
3 Rhode Island 22
4 Kansas 17
5 Idaho 15
6 Nebraska 15
7 Arkansas 13
8 Colorado 13
9 Indiana 13
10 South Dakota 13
11 Connecticut 12
12 Illinois 12
13 Michigan 12
14 Missouri 11
15 New Mexico 11
16 Pennsylvania 11
17 West Virginia 11
18 Wisconsin 11
19 Montana 10
20 Tennessee 10
21 Kentucky 8
22 Mississippi 8
23 Nevada 8
24 New Jersey 8
25 Louisiana 7
26 Massachusetts 7
27 Minnesota 7
28 Alabama 6
29 Maryland 6
30 Ohio 6
31 Oregon 6
32 Texas 6
33 Arizona 5
34 Utah 5
35 California 4
36 Florida 4
37 Maine 4
38 New York 4
39 North Carolina 4
40 Oklahoma 4
41 Alaska 3
42 Delaware 3
43 District of Columbia 3
44 Georgia 3
45 Vermont 3
46 Virginia 3
47 Washington 3
48 Puerto Rico 2
49 South Carolina 2
50 New Hampshire 1
51 Hawaii 0
52 Iowa 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 224,550 1 99
Norton Kansas 210,222 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 204,608 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 201,474 4 99
Buffalo South Dakota 200,815 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 74,384 511 83
Richland South Carolina 52,925 1371 56
York South Carolina 40,441 2059 34
Orange California 30,049 2528 19
Pierce Washington 23,230 2765 11

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,363 3 99
Foster North Dakota 5,919 4 99
Turner South Dakota 5,606 5 99
Richland South Carolina 746 1494 52
Davidson Tennessee 654 1682 46
York South Carolina 527 1944 38
Orange California 514 1974 37
Pierce Washington 382 2301 26

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons